We’ve all heard the “47 percent” comments, Obama mistakenly said he plans to export American jobs, and Mitt went on Univision about 3 shades away from being in blackface. I think it’s safe to say that this race has seen its most entertaining moments, so let’s call this election and be done with it once and for all.
With most states nestled firmly within the confines of their own cultural predictability, I’m going to go ahead and use the Politico map as a starting point, and just delve into my predictions for the so-called “swing states”.
And off we go.
Last time Obama won in Colorado by what, 9 points? Something like that. Now 40 days out he’s ahead by 4 to 6 depending on the poll. Unless he calls Peyton Manning a “brain-dead hayseed who should be castrated for the public good”, he wins comfortably here.
After the decision to take Ryan as V.P., the logic and reason portions of my brain were insisting that 90% or more of Romney’s attention and capital should be invested in Florida. There are only 110 electoral votes in the swing states, and 29 of them are roasting to death under the punishing Florida sun. Strangely, Romney has opted for a different route, and Obama’s lead has grown steadily in the past few weeks.
In Romney’s corner, he does have the tacit endorsement of Israeli P.M., Netanyahu. Unfortunately for him, while almost everyone hates the “Ryan Plan”, the elderly REALLY hate it, and I think that’s going to decide Florida. It will be close, but Obama will take Florida.
Iowa is just fucking weird.
A state where conservative politicians go to get baptized by their sacred straw poll, gay marriage is legal, and a place Obama seems to treat like his first middle school crush.
Despite all the noise from competing ends of the crazy stick, I still say it’s a conservative state at the moment. King is probably going to eek out a victory in the 4th district, and although Obama is up by 3 or 4 points in the polls, that’s close enough to the margin of error for me to call it for Romney. Point Red.
I’ll be honest, I don’t know shit about Nevada politics. I’ve never been to Vegas. However, I know that the housing markets are worse here than anywhere else in the Country, and regular people feel that pretty bad.
Local politics look like they’re swinging toward the Republicans, so once again, even though he is up by a few points in the polls right now, I give Romney his second state here.
You’ve got to be fucking kidding me. Point Blue.
Good old Southern states. At this point it looks like Obama is up by 2 or 3 points here, but last week it was Romney. The further away the Romney campaign drifts from the possibility of a Florida victory, the more essential N.C. becomes (if Obama wins Florida and N.C., he can lose every other swing state and still be re-elected).
I think social conservatism will win out here, and N.C. will go to Romney.
Most of the polls for Ohio are (relatively) older than some of the other swing states, but all show Obama leading, and most show a very comfortable margin. Ohio politics, more than many other states are decided by a working class vote which never fell completely in love with Obama in 2008.
But I guess it’s better to vote for a guy who’s “just ok”, than a carbon copy of the douchebag who fired your dad, forclosed on your house, and shipped your job to China. Obama doesn’t win Ohio, Mitt loses it. Point Blue.
This is Tim Kaine territory, and it looks like he’s poised to win again. The migration of working class 30-somethings to Virginia from the rest of the country has made Virginia a battle-ground state for years to come. Despite trailing with military families, I think Obama not only shows great numbers here (up by 4 or more in nearly all polls) but supposedly this is one of the places with the best “grassroots organizations” already in place. I guess that means Virginians will be getting a lot of door-to-door visitors. Sucks for them, good for Barack.
For just a second, a tiny tiny micro-flash of an instant, I thought the Paul Ryan V.P. pick might make a difference here and swing the Packer state over to the Republicans. I’m sure that fantastic moment went through Romney’s head as well.
Despite the blow dealt to organized labor during a special election to recall governor Scott Walker, I think Wisconsin will go for Obama. Having gone through this process so recently, there just isn’t the undecided block of voters here that almost every other state enjoys/despises. People have already picked their sides, there aren’t any more arguments to be made. That being said, the polls favor Obama by 8-10 points, and without the undecideds, I just don’t see enough room for Romney to carve away at that lead.
Out of the remaining swing states, Romney will take Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina. That leaves Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin to Barack Obama. Final vote tally will be Obama (320), and Romney (218).
Of course, when the debates reveal that Obama has been mainlining crystal meth with a 17 year old Puerto Rican mistress, or that Romney gets caught actually trying to purchase slaves in October, some of my calculations may fall by the wayside. Weird shit aside, I see another 4 years of Obama.